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Brent crude falls 8.7% to $94.62 after the US midterm results

Oil prices have swung sharply for weeks on news about the war involving Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow channel through which a large share of the world's oil normally passes. Brent was above $114 a barrel on 29 October; by Wednesday evening it had settled at $94.62, down $8.98 in a single day. The trigger this time was American politics. As votes from Tuesday's midterm elections were counted, news agencies projected that Democrats had won both houses of Congress. Traders read this as a sign that pressure on the White House to wind down the conflict would grow, and President Trump told the Financial Times there were no immediate plans for further strikes. Vice President Vance was reported to have blamed the war for the losses. Nothing has been settled, though. Reports earlier this week, based on unnamed sources, said the US had approved a Qatari draft for an interim deal, but no government has confirmed an agreement, and a senior Iranian official told Reuters the two sides were far from one. Iran's Revolutionary Guards also said four tankers caught fire after hitting mines in the strait. For India, which buys most of its oil abroad, cheaper crude is a relief, but the price can reverse quickly.

The chain of consequences

  1. 1News agencies project Democrats win the House and Senate
  2. 2Traders expect more pressure to end the Iran war
  3. 3Trump says no immediate plans for more strikes
  4. 4Brent settles at $94.62, lowest since 31 August
  5. 5India's oil import bill and rupee pressure ease

Tends to gain

Oil importers and fuel users: refiners and marketers, airlines, paint, tyre and chemical makers; the rupee and India's trade balance.

Tends to lose

Crude producers such as Oil India and ONGC, which earn less per barrel.

If it reverses

If talks stall or attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz escalate, oil could rebound quickly, as it has several times since the war began.

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