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US votes in midterm elections; 10-year bond yield rises to about 4.96%

The US held midterm elections on 3 November. Before the vote, Republicans held narrow majorities in both the House and the Senate. Counting was continuing as this edition was prepared, and control of Congress had not been confirmed. US government bond yields rose on the day: the 10-year yield was up about 6.4 basis points at roughly 4.96% and the 30-year about 5.33%, according to figures cited from CNBC. Investors are focused on whether a split Congress would slow spending or tax plans. The US also releases services-sector and private-payroll data on 4 November and the October jobs report on 6 November, which will shape expectations for the Federal Reserve.

The chain of consequences

  1. 1Americans vote for all House seats and a third of the Senate
  2. 2Investors weigh how a change in Congress could affect spending and taxes
  3. 3US 10-year yield rises 6.4 bp to about 4.96%
  4. 4Higher US yields can pull money from emerging markets like India

Tends to gain

Indian IT exporters benefit if a stronger dollar follows

Tends to lose

Rate-sensitive sectors and foreign inflows if US yields keep rising

If it reverses

If yields fall back once results are clear, emerging markets including India could see steadier foreign buying.

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