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Brent settles at $103.60 after US strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, as Qatar keeps talks alive

US forces struck surface-to-air missile sites on Iran's Qeshm Island, in the Strait of Hormuz, on the eve of the US midterm elections. US officials described the strikes as limited and defensive. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they shot down a US drone near the strait. Oil first rose on the news, with Brent around $105–106 during Indian trading, but it settled $1.17 lower at $103.60 a barrel, according to a Reuters report, as Qatar's foreign ministry said both sides were reviewing mediators' proposals. Iranian officials said a deal remains far off, that the US response to their conditions was not convincing, and that Hormuz stays closed until demands such as an end to the US naval blockade, lifting of oil sanctions and release of frozen funds are met. For India, which imports most of its oil, each fall in crude eases pressure on inflation, the trade deficit and the rupee. That helps explain why shares rallied even on a day of fresh military action.

The chain of consequences

  1. 1US carries out limited overnight strikes on Qeshm Island near Hormuz
  2. 2Brent rises above $105 during Indian trading
  3. 3A US official calls the strikes limited, not a return to major combat
  4. 4Qatar says both sides are reviewing proposals
  5. 5Brent settles 1.1% lower at $103.60, lowest close since 7 October

Tends to gain

Oil-using businesses such as carmakers, paint makers and airlines; India's import bill

Tends to lose

Crude producers such as Oil India, which fell 1.4%

If it reverses

If talks collapse or strikes widen, oil could climb back toward the $118 October high, hurting the rupee and fuel-sensitive sectors.

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