US votes in midterm elections; Trump says no new strikes on Iran before the vote
US midterm elections take place on Tuesday, 3 November. Prediction market Kalshi priced the Democrats as strong favourites to win the House and favourites for the Senate, according to a US market close report; these are market odds, not results. For India the main link is Iran. President Trump has said the US will not launch new attacks before the vote and described talks with Tehran as productive, but on Saturday he said he still had one or two targets to deal with, including a site the US suspects is nuclear. Iran has warned it would respond to any renewed attack. Because India imports most of its crude, any return to fighting would push oil and inflation risks back up.
The chain of consequences
- 1Americans vote on 3 November
- 2Results shape Congress and US policy
- 3Trump has said no new attacks on Iran before the vote, without ruling them out after
- 4Oil, the dollar and bond yields may move on the outcome
Tends to gain
A calm result and progress in Iran talks would help oil-importing countries such as India
Tends to lose
Renewed strikes after the vote would hurt oil importers and the rupee
If it reverses
If talks with Iran stall after the election, the recent fall in oil could reverse.
Companies in this story
Other stories today
- Brent falls 7.6% to about $104.77 as Iran offers to reopen Hormuz on conditions
- Reliance jumps 11.6% after a 41% profit rise, lifting the Nifty 1.68% to 23,440.80
- Record October vehicle sales lift auto shares; Maruti up 2.4%
- Metal shares rise 3.2%; Coal India gains 4.9% after record October supplies
- Foreign investors buy about ₹3,115 crore; rupee slips 10 paise to 94.86
- NTPC and Power Grid rise after results; NHPC reports on 4 November
- IT and pharma shares lag the rally; Infosys falls 2%
- US factory survey strengthens to 55.5 while the 10-year yield eases to 4.89%
- Defence shares recover; BDL bounces 2.3% from its 52-week low
- State-run banks rise 1.4% on Bank of Baroda results; Bank of Maharashtra slips
- L&T rises 1.8% as infrastructure shares gain