Medium impact
US factory survey strengthens to 55.5 while the 10-year yield eases to 4.89%
The US ISM manufacturing index rose to 55.5 in October from 54.5, a tenth month of expansion, and production hit its highest level since November 2021. The prices-paid index eased to 75.2 but remains high. The US 10-year Treasury yield fell 3.5 basis points to about 4.893% as lower oil eased inflation worries. Futures markets still priced about a 72% chance of a Fed rate rise in December as of early Monday, according to CME FedWatch data cited in a US market close report. The S&P 500 fell 0.51% and the Nasdaq 1.07%, while the Dow rose 0.41%.
The chain of consequences
- 1US ISM manufacturing index rises to 55.5
- 2Prices paid ease but stay high at 75.2
- 3Lower oil eases inflation worries
- 4US 10-year yield falls 3.5 basis points to 4.893%
Tends to gain
Emerging markets such as India benefit when US yields fall
Tends to lose
A strong US economy keeps the risk of a December Fed rate rise alive
If it reverses
If US jobs data on 6 November is strong, yields could climb again.
Other stories today
- Brent falls 7.6% to about $104.77 as Iran offers to reopen Hormuz on conditions
- Reliance jumps 11.6% after a 41% profit rise, lifting the Nifty 1.68% to 23,440.80
- US votes in midterm elections; Trump says no new strikes on Iran before the vote
- Record October vehicle sales lift auto shares; Maruti up 2.4%
- Metal shares rise 3.2%; Coal India gains 4.9% after record October supplies
- Foreign investors buy about ₹3,115 crore; rupee slips 10 paise to 94.86
- NTPC and Power Grid rise after results; NHPC reports on 4 November
- IT and pharma shares lag the rally; Infosys falls 2%
- Defence shares recover; BDL bounces 2.3% from its 52-week low
- State-run banks rise 1.4% on Bank of Baroda results; Bank of Maharashtra slips
- L&T rises 1.8% as infrastructure shares gain