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Brent falls 7.6% to about $104.77 as Iran offers to reopen Hormuz on conditions

Brent crude settled 7.63% lower at about $104.77 a barrel on Monday, and US crude fell below $100, according to a US market close report. During Indian trading hours Brent was around $108–110, already well below Friday's six-month high near $118. The fall came after Iranian negotiators held talks with Qatari mediators over the weekend and an official said a draft proposal to end the war was circulating. Iran's foreign minister said the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within two days under an agreement, but Iran's conditions include ending the US naval blockade of its ports, lifting oil sanctions and unfreezing assets. President Trump said Iran wants to make a deal and that the US would not launch new attacks before Tuesday's midterm elections, but he has not ruled out further action. Analysts quoted in reports stressed that this is hope, not a deal. The strait has been largely closed since the war began in late February, and OPEC output was more than 3 million barrels a day below pre-war levels in September.

The chain of consequences

  1. 1Iran and Qatari mediators hold talks; a draft proposal to end the war circulates
  2. 2Iran says Hormuz could reopen within two days if its demands are met
  3. 3Traders price in less supply risk
  4. 4Brent settles down 7.63% at $104.77
  5. 5Lower oil eases India's import bill and inflation worries

Tends to gain

Oil-consuming businesses such as carmakers, airlines, paint and tyre makers; India's trade balance

Tends to lose

Crude producers such as Oil India lose some price support, though Oil India's shares still rose with the market

If it reverses

If talks break down or fighting resumes after the US midterms, oil could jump back toward its recent high near $118.

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